Winter Storm Page

What You Will Find Here

During each winter storm, I will post updates for the entire region on this page.  I will activate this page several days prior to a major winter storm so you all can follow along with me during the forecasting process.

 

This section will include:

  • Models with my analysis
  • Accumulation Potential
  • Hazards to be Aware of
  • Potential Jack Pot and Bust Potentials

Current Model Analysis

The EURO: 4pm MONDAY

 

We have seen a shift with the Euro a bit North & West bringing the heaviest axis o snow over NW NJ and Central PA.  Mixing becomes an issue for NYC, LI and NJ.  We will watch to see if this trend continues tonight.
 

CONFIDENCE IN THIS MODEL: 60%

The Canadian Model: 4PM MONDAY

I believe the final outcome will be a blend of these two models.  I do feel that we will see some snow south into Ocean county as the Low pressure moves off the Atlantic City Coast east into the open waters, and begins it NE climb.  As it does, the heaviest of banding will be WEST of Philly, NORTH of NYC, Across NORTHERN NJ and into CT.

 

CONFIDENCE IN THIS MODEL: 50%

1st Call Accumulation Map

In Conclusion

We will continue to watch the models overnight tonight and throughout the day tomorrow.  I would look for a Southerly push to this storm.  Maybe another 50 miles or so.  This may bring some of the heaviest snow potential into North Central & Western NJ, Westchester/Rockland, NYC and Western LI. 

 

More updates tonight!

 

JB

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